[url=https://cutt.ly/tgUsZ9U][img]https://i.ibb.co/51hhpry/FIXED.gif[/img][/url] [url=https://bit.ly/3dWKdMz][img]https://i.ibb.co/D42jtk2/Ina.gif[/img][/url] п»їFinding Correlated Parlays in Betting. If you've wagered on sports for a while, you've probably heard the term correlated parlay used once or twice. Maybe not, however, as the concept is one that not many sports bettors pay close attention to. Many bettors have been warned away from parlays and stick to straight bets, which is probably the best way to go for the majority of bettors. But correlated parlays are a different story, and there are times when making a parlay bet could prove to be beneficial in the long run. What Is a Correlated Parlay? A correlated parlay is essentially a bet that is tied into another, in that if one bet wins, it increases the odds of the other bet winning. As a rule, sportsbooks do not accept correlated wagers. An example would be if you wanted to parlay a first half over bet to the game going over the total. Most, if not all, sportsbooks will not allow this type of wager because if you win your first half bet, the odds are greater that you will win your total wager for the game, as well. A more blatant example would be parlaying the first half over to the second half over to the game over. If you win the first half over wager and the second half over bet, you're obviously going to win the wager for the game. Bookies who take these types of bets will not be in business for very long. Finding Your Own Correlated Parlays. But there will be instances over the course of a season where bettors will stumble upon games and totals that essentially offer a correlated parlay opportunity. These will typically occur when you have two distinct styles of teams playing each other and one team is superior to the other. Let's use the 2008 Alamo Bowl between Northwestern and Missouri as an example. The two conferences the teams play in couldn't be more different, which makes it difficult to predict the over/under. If you like Missouri, take the over, if you like Northwestern, you'll probably be wanting to see the under in since it's doubtful Northwestern can hang with Missouri in a shootout. Essentially, what we're looking for are those cases where if Team A covers the point spread, it's more likely the game will go over or under the total. When two teams with different styles meet, many times the oddsmakers set the total right in the middle. For example, say Duke is playing Princeton in college basketball and there are 160 points scored in Duke games and 100 scored in Princeton games. The middle point would be 130 points. But since Duke is a far stronger team, the total will be somewhat tilted in that direction, so a total of 138 or so would be what you'd reasonably expect to see. If Duke was favored by 22 points, a bettor liking Duke would probably be inclined to believe the over would come through, while somebody taking Princeton would probably hope to see a low-scoring game, which would be more likely to help the Tigers stay within the large point spread. If you liked Princeton in the game and were going to wager one unit on the Tigers, consider .90 of a unit on the Tigers and the remaining .10 units on a Princeton/under parlay. If Duke blows out Princeton by 23 points or more, you're destined to lose your wager anyway. If the Tigers cover the point spread, you win your primary wager and wait to see how the total wager plays out. The Logic Behind Looking for Correlated Parlays. Let's use a 10-game sample of $100 bets. If you make 10 straight $100 wagers and win six of them you'll have a profit of $160, which is derived by $600-$440=$160. Now if you use the .90 - .10 rule described above, you would show a profit of $540-$396=$144 before factoring in the parlay wagers. (The $396 is derived from four losing bets at $99 each.) The first thing we have to do is subtract $40 from our profit of $144 to account for the four losing parlays. This drops our profit to $104. Out of our six remaining teams, which covered the point spread, we have six $10 parlays ongoing. If we win three of those six parlays, we'll lose an additional $30 and win an additional $72, which leaves us with a total profit of $148. This is less than the $160 profit we would have made by flat betting. But if we win four of the six, we'll lose an additional $20, but show an additional profit of $104, giving us a total profit of $188, which is better than our flat-betting profit. Since we are looking for those situations where if one team covers the point spread it greatly increases the likelihood of the game going over or under the total, a 66.7-percent ratio isn't as unattainable as it may sound at first. And all we have to do to show a larger profit or smaller loss is have our correlation be correct 55-percent of the time. Using the same 10-game sample, say we were to go 5-5 instead. Flat betting would give us a $50 loss, while the .90-.10 ratio would give us a $45 loss before factoring in the parlays. Since we will automatically lose five of them for our five losing wagers, our loss now becomes $95. Of the five winning bets, if we win two parlays, our total loss will become $73, which is worse than if we had stuck to flat betting. But if we win three of our five parlays, our total loss drops to $37, which is better than our flat rate loss of $50. Using a 200-game sample, say we go 100-100. By flat betting, we'll have a $1,000 loss. Using the .90-.10 ratio, we'll show a $900 loss on our .90-unit bets and a $1,000 loss on our parlays, giving us a loss of $1,950. Out of our 100 winning bets, we still have 100 $10 parlays going. If we were to win 54 of them, our total loss becomes $1,006 which is slightly more than what we would have lost by flat betting. But if we were to win 55 of them, our total loss would decrease to $970, which is less than we show by flat betting. Wrapping Up. There is no magic formula that will let you know when a correlated situation arises. Instead, it's something that will come to sports bettors over time. Correlated parlay situations don't often present themselves, but when they do, don't be afraid to put a little portion of your wager on a parlay, as well as on the team you like to cover the point spread. What Is A Parlay Bet? Strategy And Parlay Calculator. A parlay is a single sports wager that involves two or more bets combined into one. This can include point spreads , moneylines , totals , futures , or even prop bets , as long as the bets are on different games. The allure of these bets has always been a larger payout than choosing a single team to win. But there’s more gamble to these types of wagers because every “leg” of the parlay needs to not lose in order to win. If one leg loses, the whole parlay loses. The flexibility of a parlay bet also makes it attractive to gamblers. You can combine multiple sports into your parlay bet; for example, you can include the Cowboys from the NFL, the Celtics from the NBA and the Coyotes from the NHL into a single bet. If they all win, you win. Test out the parlay calculator above and compare odds at different sportsbooks to see how it works! Placing a parlay bet. There are two ways to place a parlay bet and both are quite simple. Bettors can either tell the ticket writer directly which teams and totals they’d like to bet on and how much they’d like to risk on the bet. Filling out a parlay card is the other option for placing this kind of bet. Once the card is filled in, the bettor simply needs to visit the sportsbook desk to place the bet. Some mobile sports wagering apps offer both types of parlay bets. Get the best parlay deal at online sportsbooks with Parlay Insurance here: Winning a parlay. There are two instances when a parlay can be a winning bet. A parlay only wins if none of the sides, totals or moneylines selected is a loser. The parlay can still be a winner if a game is canceled or ends in a tie. The pay schedule will simply more down to the lesser payment. For example, the bettor will win if a baseball parlay for four teams has three winners and one game is canceled because of rain. The bet will only pay based on the schedule for three winners instead of four as originally planned. The bet is a loser if one pick for a parlay is wrong. Parlay odds. Not all parlay payouts are the same. Sportsbooks may have different odds for the number of teams bet in a parlay. This can be very confusing when looking at online sports that have different odds and payouts for the same parlay. Further, these odds may change at any time so bettors should check with the ticket writer in sportsbook before placing a parlay. Parlay payouts. Payouts for a parlay are fixed by the time the bet is placed. Even if the lines and odds for an individual game move, the parlay lines and odds won’t change from when the parlay bet was placed. The parlay bet won’t be changed whether the lines change for or against the bettor. If the lines change for a game, or games, in the favor of the bettor another parlay may be bet with the new line. The original bet cannot be changed and the bet will stand. The good news is that the bettor has two live parlay bets. Types of parlays. A parlay is a type of sports bet and there are different variations of this kind of wager. The most common types of parlays are Round Robin parlays and Teasers . Round Robin. A Round Robin bet is placing multiple parlay wagers at once . It’s just that simple. Round Robin bets are just a way to simplify making multiple parlays. When a bettor “Round Robin’s” teams in sports betting it’s similar to a horse bettor “boxing” horses for an exacta or trifecta bet in a race. The bettor will select anywhere from 3 to 8 teams or totals to be in the Round Robin. They will then choose how many teams or totals they’d like to tie together for the Round Robin. For example, a bettor may select eight teams and totals for a Round Robin and tie the parlays to as many three-team combinations as possible. The combination of teams will dictate how many different parlays the bettor has. Continuing the example, if a bettor wants to Round Robin eight teams they will have 28 different parlays if they choose two teams. If the bettor chooses to make three-team parlays they will have 56 different parlay tickets. The ticket will cost the amount chosen for each parlay. If the bettor only has $300 they might choose to Round Robin the teams by two, so they have 28 different parlays for $10 each. The payout for each winning parlay is the same as it would be if the parlay bets were each made individually. Teaser. A teaser is similar to a traditional parlay where the bettor can select multiple teams or totals . However, there are no moneylines allowed with a teaser. Unlike a parlay, the bettor may move each point spread or total plus or minus a certain number of points. The additional points on the spread or total make these bets easier to win and thus they pay less than a traditional parlay. Teaser bets can change the point spreads or totals anywhere from six to 10 points. However, each leg of the teaser must use the same number of points. Those legs of the teaser may go in different directions. Much like a traditional parlay, the more teams involved with a teaser the better the payoff. Again, different sportsbooks have different odds and rules so they might have different payouts and teaser options available to bet. Parlay Cards. The more popular way to bet parlays in casinos today seems to be with a Parlay Card. These are the long narrow cards where bettors fill in the numbered circle of the side or point spread they want to include in their bet. Once the teams and totals are chosen the bettor simply presents the filled in portion on the card to the ticket writer in the sportsbook along with how much they’d like to wager. Parlay Cards are especially popular during football season. There are many different types of Parlay Cards including a variety of teasers, ties win and reverse teaser cards known as pleasers. These are more popular every year so the mobile sports wagering apps have started to add Parlay Cards for mobile bettors. Bet with your head, not over it. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. Parlay Betting Sites. All reputable sports betting sites offer exciting betting opportunities like parlays one of the most popular and exciting types of wagers. Parlays can result in huge pay outs and are dependent upon the success of multiple events. The best parlay betting sites are listed below. Parlay Betting Online. Parlays involve wagering on multiple events that are all dependent on each other for the wager to be successful. For example, a parlay might be placed on games that require teams a, b and c each win their games. If just one of those teams loses their game, the entire parlay bet loses. Parlays are exciting because they offer huge payout odds to winners. Every additional event that is added to a parlay reduces the chances that the bet will win, but increases the payout odds. Many online bettors are attracted to parlays because pay outs can be many times the amount originally wagered. What Exactly Are Parlays? Considered “exotic” in the sports betting world – parlays certainly provide entertainment. Parlays are becoming more and more popular. Parlays offer players to get an opportunity to receive a big payout. It gives the bettor a chance to bet on many games, and putting them all together into one. Odds and Payouts On Parlay Wagers? Here are the odds that are typical on at most parlay betting sites. These odds are for point spread parlays. Of course moneyline odds will be different. 2 teams – 13-5 3 teams – 6-1 4 teams – 10-1 5 teams – 25-1 6 teams – 40-1 7 teams – 75-1 8 teams – 150-1 9 teams – 300-1 10 teams – 600-1. Moneyline Parlay Odds: When you are putting money down on a parlay with moneyline games, your odds certainly will differ. The favorite teams obviously give you a better chance to win, but pay less. What do these odds mean? With parlays, each game you place on your “card” MUST win for you to win the parlay. As you can see from the odds, your chances get smaller each time you input a result in. These odds will vary depending on what teams you select. For example, a big favorite in a game would help your odds, but most likely decrease your total payout. Advice For Betting On Parlays – Parlays are fun to play, but sharps often avoid them. It takes a lot of luck to win a big time parlay. Odds of winning a 10-team parlay are around 1000-1, your odds are around 1000-1. This results in a lot of losing money if you continue to place money on big parlays. Certainly if you win a parlay, your bankroll is going to look good for a while. It’s probably a better idea to pick straight picks instead of parlays. It’s tough enough to win games straight up, let alone pick a whole group of them together accurate. There is a reason many experts in the sports betting consider parlay’s sucker bets. Choosing Where to Bet on Parlays Online. The best parlay wagering sites share several common attributes we require for listing at BBS. The best parlay betting sites offer all major sports like basketball, hockey, football and baseball. Convenient banking is an important part of reputable parlay betting sites. Members need to be able to make deposits easily to place parlay bets whenever desired, and cashout winning tickets without hassle. High quality support is vital so that any potential issues can be resolved quickly. Parlay Strategy. A parlay bet is a popular form of sports wagering most gamblers are familiar with. In case you’re not, this bet is rather easy to understand. A parlay is simply a combo bet where, rather than betting several teams individually, you group them into a single wager. Using this option, the payout is greater and the risk is less, but you need all teams selected to win. What happens if there’s a push in a parlay? That bet will be taken out of the parlay and the payout will be reduced as if there were one fewer team in the parlay. So if you had a 4 team parlay and you got three picks cocrrect and the other was a push, you would be paid out the odds of a 3 team parlay. Parlay bets can be very tempting as they can offer some big payouts. See a recent parlay Kevin made at 5Dimes.eu and cashed in on! Are Parlays Sucker Bets? There is a general misconception in sports betting that all parlays are sucker bets. This is simply because most sports bettors are not familiar with how they work, or how to bet them properly. In this article, I’ll address parlay betting strategies, but first let’s look at parlay odds and how they are calculated. The parlay odds at most Las Vegas sportsbooks are: 2 teams 2.6 to 1 3 teams 6-1 4 teams 10-1 5 teams 20-1 6 teams 40-1 7 teams 80-1 8 teams 150-1. Let’s say you decide for the next eight weeks you’re going to bet the Monday night football game, starting with a $1.00 bankroll and betting your entire bankroll each week until you go 8-0 or bust. The potential win is as follows: Week 1: $1.00 to win $0.91: If win total profit = $0.91 (Bankroll =$1.91) Week 2: $1.91 to win $1.74: If win total profit = $2.65 (Bankroll =$3.65) Week 3: $3.65 to win $3.32: If win total profit = $5.97 (Bankroll =$6.97) Week 4: $6.97 to win $6.34: If win total profit = $12.31 (Bankroll =$13.31) Week 5: $13.31 to win $12.10: If win total profit = $24.41 (Bankroll =$25.41) Week 6: $25.41 to win $23.10: If win total profit = $46.51 (Bankroll =$47.51) Week 7: $47.51 to win $43.19: If win total profit = $89.70 (Bankroll =$90.70) Week 8: $90.70 to win $82.45: If win total profit = $172.15 (Bankroll =$173.15) The reason parlays are often sucker bets shows up in this middle column. Had you bet these in an 8 team parlay, you’d only get paid 150 to one. Essentially, a parlay is no different than betting all in each time, only parlays generally pay much worse. However, you’ll notice the odds are not poor until you get to four teams, where the sportsbook has a whopping 31.25% advantage. Two teams pay a smidgen worse than the manual parlay (all in each time) option, where three team parlays pay a smidgen better. Rarely ever is a 2 or 3 team parlay a true suckers bet. What Does a Parlay Pay? As I mentioned earlier, fixed parlay odds vary greatly between online sportsbooks. Here is some info on which sites offer the best fixed parlay odds: 3 team parlays pay 6/1 or $600 for every $100 bet. BetOnline.ag is the leader in the industry in 3 team parlay payouts. Generally speaking, parlaying 5 teams or more teams is not a good idea; however, for sports gamblers looking for a lotto ticket, 5dimes.eu and Bookmaker.eu each offer up to 15 team parlays and have by far the best odds in the business on these. True Odds Parlays. 1 Earlier, I mentioned fixed odds are only given when all selections are 50/50 propositions. If one side of a line requires a greater stake than the other to yield the same payout, this is not a 50/50 proposition, and the bookmaker will now use “true odds”. What’s important to note is that true odds doesn’t actually mean the “true odds” of winning. Rather, true odds pays the same as if you bet each team individually and rolled the profit forward each time, which is what I showed in the example of 8 all in bets starting with a $1.00 stake. Let’s say you’re in the mood to gamble on an 8 team parlay, but the only out available to you is a bookmaker paying 150-1 fixed odds. A trick of the trade here is to include one bet that is priced differently than -110 in order to force the bookmaker to use true odds. So, let’s say you make 7 selections priced at the standard -110 pricing and one at -115. A true parlay calculates by multiplying each modifier together. The math is 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.87, which equals 173.41. This bet returns 173.41 times the stake, which includes the risk amount, so the bet is 1 to win 172.41. Notice this is significantly better than the fixed odds payout of 1 to win 150 on an 8 team parlay. In short, the trick of the trade when dealing with poor fixed odds is to simply add one team to the parlay that is priced differently than the standard -110. As you can now see, if you know how to bet parlays properly, they are not always sucker bets. There are, however, a few reasons that parlays are generally not a good move. I’ll cover these, and then cover the times it does make sense. Top Reasons to Avoid Parlays. 1) Progressive betting systems are generally regarded as poor strategy for both bankroll management and bankroll growth. Professional bettors make wagers based on their quantified edge per game. While the math can work out, doing the math for proper bet sizing on a parlay is a lot of added work with little to no upside for most sports bettors. 2) Parlay bets have higher variance than straight bets. Here you’re getting the same odds, but your chance of hitting a dry spell is greatly increased. When the odds are the same it is most often better to go with the lower variance option, which in this case is straight wagers. 3) Line Shopping – Sports bettors maximize their profit by always shopping for the best price. For example, finding -4 when other sites are -4.5, and finding reduced vig options such as -104 instead of -110. When betting parlays, you’ll need to find the most favorable odds for each team at a single betting site. This scenario is rare, so generally you’ll end up with better odds by making straight wagers at multiple betting sites. Parlays That Make the Most Sense: Reduced Juice – BetOnline.ag offers 6.5 to one on three team parlays. This comes out better than betting sides at the -105 price standard reduced juice sports books offer. In sports such as NFL football where 50/50 wagering propositions are common, a sports bettor gets far superior odds by betting 3 team parlays at BetOnline. Correlated Parlays – If a bookmaker was offering betting lines on both “will it be cloudy today?” and “will it rain today?”, if allowed, you’d be much better off betting either both as no, or both as yes, in a parlay bet as opposed to straight wagers. While this is a simplified example, there are plenty of times when outcomes are correlated in sports betting. For example, a handicapper might determine that if one team covers the spread, the game is more likely to go over or under the posted total. Also, during the final week of the NFL season, a certain team winning or losing the day game might result in a previously important night game now having no meaning in the playoff race. Free Play Bonuses – Several online betting sites, for example BetNow, offer players free bets based on the size of their initial deposit. Free play bonuses are not the same as cash. The difference is that a bet made with cash returns both stake and win, where a bet made with a free play returns only win. Parlays allow you the chance to use the same free play more than once, because a parlay really is only a wager that continues to place stake+win on the next selection. Remember, fixed odd three team parlays pay a little better than true odds. So when using free plays to bet 3 team parlays, you’re getting slightly better odds, and also a chance to apply that free play stake to three different bets. This is common knowledge that 3 team parlays are a great use of free play bonuses. 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